These are some basic notes that explain the idea of Bayesian interim analysis in clinical trials in plain language, contrasting it to the frequentist idea. These notes are very simplistic by design...

Some notes on assessing publication bias. This is my own working in public note, so I will be going a bit into the weeds and skipping over basics. If you stumbled on this note, it may make sense t...

This is a short note on the current stance of the FDA to use of Bayesian methods in clinical trials and what people mean when they talk about “Bayesian trials”. These are just loose and basic notes...

Some time ago I wrote about a new meta-analysis pre-print where we estimated that providing safe drinking water led to a 30% mean reduction in deaths in children under-5, based on data from 15 RCTs...

Cross-posting this from a guest post I wrote for Andrew Gelman’s blog. I thought the readers of this blog would find this pre-print interesting. It’s a meta-analysis of how improving water quality...

30 Mar 2023 update: Since I wrote these notes, I also found that adding correlation between death and morbidity estimates would also bring the MRPRP results closer to GW’s, but currently I do not h...

Here are some simple notes on how experimental design for infection experiments. The goal is to detect statistically significant difference in infection rates. I start with back-of-envelope calcula...

…is a factually-correct if rather uninspired title of my new paper out in Oxford Review of Econ Policy. This is just a short cross-post from a Twitter thread I wrote here, making it a bit more read...